Ebay may make money on Skype yet

By | January 19, 2006

Ebay reported it earnings for 2005 yesterday. The total revenues for Skype, who they have only owned for about 78 days, was nearly $25 million. Om Malik crunched the numbers and got to:

At $24.8 million over seventy eight days, it works out to about $116 million, a shade ahead of $100 million annual run-rate they hoped for when the SkyeBay deal was announced.

Sounds good for Ebay. Of course that’s until Om decided to “slice it differently”:

Being snarky for a minute, at that rate, the sales-to-deal-price ($2.6 billion) parity will take about 8176 days. Roughly 22 years! (Of course they will grow their sales, I am just having some fun here 😉 )

He says he’s being snarky, but is he? How far off point is he really? The fact of the matter is that yes, Skype revenues will most likely grow. Will they grow enough for Ebay to see any “deal” profit before all of the current employees at Ebay retire? Maybe. $2.6 billion is a lot of money. $2.6 billion is $2,600,000,000 million. Thats a lot. So lets say that they double their revenue… in 5 years. On average they take in $150 million a year for the next 5 years. If I’ve done my calculations right, that brings us to $1,744,000,000 million left. Now at $200 million thereafter… 8.72 years for a total of nearly 14 years. Best scenario? Paid off in 9-10 years unless revenues grow exponentially.

I suppose thats not horrible. But it isn’t great either.

[tags]Ebay, Skype, Malik, revenues[/tags]